Gas Just Set a September Record. What the 2026 Fuel Crisis Means for Used Car Buyers
Gas hit $4.46 a gallon on September 29, $1.32 more than a year ago, and diesel set an all-time record of $6.53. Fuel-efficient used cars are getting more expensive while trucks and big SUVs get cheaper. Here's what a year of fuel costs by model, and when switching cars actually pays.
Mirko11 min read
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Gas prices usually fall after Labor Day. This year they went the other way. The national average for regular was $4.46 a gallon on September 29, according to AAA, up from $4.08 a month ago and $3.14 a year ago. AAA says September is on track to set a new record for the month, averaging $4.30 so far against the previous September high of $3.83 in 2023.
Diesel is worse. It hit $6.53 a gallon on September 22, the highest ever recorded, nearly 77% above a year earlier.
If you're shopping for a used car right now, fuel prices change which cars are cheap to buy and which are cheap to run, and this fall those are rarely the same car.
The numbers at a glance
| Metric | Now | A year ago |
|---|---|---|
| Regular gas, national average (Sept 29) | $4.46 | $3.14 |
| Diesel, national average (Sept 29) | $6.44 | $3.75 (EIA, Sept 28, 2025) |
| Diesel all-time high (Sept 22) | $6.53 | Old record: $5.81 (June 2022) |
| September average so far | $4.30 | Old September record: $3.83 (2023) |
| California regular (EIA, Sept 28) | $6.19 | |
| Gulf Coast regular (EIA, Sept 28) | $3.92 | |
| Public EV charging | 42¢ per kWh | |
| Home electricity (July 2026) | 18.3¢ per kWh | |
| EIA forecast, 2027 average gas price | $3.35 |
Sources: AAA, EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, EIA Electric Power Monthly, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook.
Why gas is this expensive
Crude oil is the biggest part of what you pay at the pump, and crude is expensive. West Texas Intermediate was $92.16 a barrel in AAA's September 24 update, which blamed "lingering volatility in the Strait of Hormuz and the high cost of crude oil." Tensions involving Iran have pushed crude above $100 several times this year.
Prices have been high for months, not weeks. August averaged $4.06 a gallon, tied with July 2008 for the eighth-highest month on record, and May's $4.48 average ranks third, behind only June and July 2022, according to a LendingTree analysis of EIA data.
Where you live matters as much as the national number. On September 28, the EIA put California at $6.19 and the West Coast at $5.72, against $3.92 on the Gulf Coast. That's a difference of more than $2 a gallon, which on a 15,000-mile year in a 30 mpg car is about $1,100.
Diesel is a refining problem, not just an oil problem
Diesel prices can stay high even if crude falls, because the world is short on refineries that make it. Outages at refineries in the Middle East and Russia have cut supply. The EIA's September outlook expects US distillate inventories, which include diesel, to drop below 100 million barrels this month and stay below the five-year low through much of 2027. EIA weekly data showed 107.4 million barrels on September 18.
If you're looking at a used diesel truck, run the fuel math at today's price, not the price you remember.
What a year of fuel costs now
Here's the annual fuel bill at 15,000 miles a year, using EPA combined ratings from fueleconomy.gov, at last year's price, today's national average, and California's average:
| Vehicle | EPA mpg | Sept 2025 ($3.14) | Today ($4.46) | California ($6.19) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 Chevrolet Silverado 5.3L V8 4WD | 18 | $2,617 | $3,717 | $5,158 |
| 2020 Ford F-150 2.7L EcoBoost 4WD | 20 | $2,355 | $3,345 | $4,642 |
| 2021 Toyota RAV4 AWD | 28 | $1,682 | $2,389 | $3,316 |
| 2020 Honda CR-V AWD | 29 | $1,624 | $2,307 | $3,202 |
| 2020 Toyota Camry 2.5L | 34 | $1,385 | $1,968 | $2,731 |
| 2020 Honda CR-V Hybrid AWD | 38 | $1,239 | $1,761 | $2,443 |
| 2020 Toyota RAV4 Hybrid AWD | 40 | $1,178 | $1,672 | $2,321 |
| 2020 Toyota Camry Hybrid LE | 52 | $906 | $1,287 | $1,786 |
Our calculations: 15,000 miles divided by EPA combined mpg, times the price per gallon. Your mileage and driving mix will change the numbers.
For comparison, a 2020 Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus uses about 24 kWh per 100 miles. At the July national average home rate of 18.3 cents per kWh, 15,000 miles costs about $660. At 42 cents a kWh on public chargers, it's about $1,510, more than the Camry Hybrid. Where you charge matters as much as what you drive.
A year ago, the V8 truck cost about $1,700 a year more to fuel than the Camry Hybrid. Today that gap is $2,430, and in California it's $3,370.
What the fuel crisis is doing to used car prices
Fuel-efficient cars cost more
Buyers have noticed. Cox Automotive's mid-September Manheim report found compact cars priced above last year at wholesale, while midsize cars, pickups and SUVs were below. Jonathan Gregory, senior director at Cox Automotive, said gas prices "have continued to move higher amid renewed unrest in the Middle East," and that compact cars and EVs benefited as demand shifted toward fuel-efficient vehicles.
Hybrids are the hottest part of the used market. Cars.com data from June showed used hybrids selling in 37 days on average, the fastest of any segment, with average prices up 10.4% from a year earlier, the first double-digit gain since 2022. iSeeCars found hybrids grew from 5.1% to 7.2% of used sales among 1- to 5-year-old vehicles between the first quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026.
Trucks and big SUVs are getting cheaper
Pickups and SUVs are below last year's wholesale prices, and the overall Manheim index is at 206.2, down 0.4% from a year ago. When everyone wants the same efficient car, the cars they're trading in to get it get cheaper.
That's useful if you actually need a truck or a three-row SUV. You'll pay more to fuel it, and less to buy it, than you would have a year ago.
Used EVs are up on the year
Cox's EV index is up 2.3% from a year ago, while the non-EV index is down 1.3%. Both fell a little from August, so used EV prices are not climbing month to month right now. With off-lease EVs coming back in volume this year, supply is growing too. Our guide to buying a used EV in 2026 covers battery health and what to check.
Does switching cars actually pay?
Here's how much a year of fuel you'd save at three prices: the EIA's forecast for the 2027 average, today's national average, and California today.
| Switch | 2027 forecast ($3.35) | Today ($4.46) | California ($6.19) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Camry 2.5L to Camry Hybrid | $512 | $681 | $945 |
| CR-V AWD to CR-V Hybrid AWD | $410 | $546 | $758 |
| RAV4 AWD to RAV4 Hybrid AWD | $538 | $717 | $995 |
| Silverado V8 to Camry 2.5L | $1,314 | $1,749 | $2,427 |
| Silverado V8 to RAV4 Hybrid | $1,535 | $2,044 | $2,837 |
Two things stand out.
Getting out of a thirsty vehicle saves far more than going hybrid within the same class. Moving from a V8 truck to a regular Camry saves about $1,750 a year at today's price. Moving from a regular Camry to a Camry Hybrid saves about $680. If you don't need a truck, that's the bigger lever, and you don't have to pay the hybrid premium to get most of it.
The hybrid premium eats the savings. In the first quarter, the average used hybrid listed for $33,097 against $31,110 for a gas car, per iSeeCars. That's a rough market-wide gap of about $2,000, not a like-for-like comparison, and hybrid prices have risen since. At today's price, the Camry Hybrid needs about three years to earn back $2,000. At the EIA's 2027 forecast, it needs about four. If the hybrid you're looking at costs $4,000 more than the gas version, you need six to eight years at those prices, and that assumes nothing on the hybrid system needs work.
The EIA's September outlook expects Brent crude to average around $90 a barrel for the rest of 2026 and fall to about $74 in 2027, with gas averaging $3.35 next year. Forecasts are not promises, and this one depends on how oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, but buying a car on the assumption that gas stays at $4.46 for the next five years is a bet, not a plan.
Where panic buying costs you
When a segment gets hot, buyers stop asking questions. That's when the problems slip through.
Hybrid battery age. A high-voltage battery is the most expensive part of a used hybrid. Most automakers cover it for 8 years or 100,000 miles, and Toyota raised its coverage to 10 years or 150,000 miles starting with 2020 models. On an older hybrid past its coverage, the battery's condition is part of the price. Ask for the service history, and for a hybrid system check at a shop that works on them.
CVTs. Many fuel-efficient gas cars use a continuously variable transmission, and some model years have a much worse record than others. Our guide to CVT transmission problems covers which ones.
Flood cars. Flooding this spring and summer put thousands of water-damaged cars into the salvage system, and many resurface for sale far from where they flooded. A fast-selling segment is an easy place to hide one. Our flood damage detection guide covers the warning signs.
Overpaying for "efficient." A small crossover with a turbocharged engine can carry a price premium because it sounds efficient, then return 26 mpg in real driving. Check the EPA rating for the exact year, engine and drivetrain, not the model name.
How to shop during the fuel crisis
- Run your own fuel math. Take your real annual miles, divide by the EPA combined mpg of each car you're considering, and multiply by your local price. Then run it again at $3.35. If the car only makes sense at today's price, it probably doesn't make sense.
- Compare total cost, not fuel cost. A $2,000 higher price, a higher insurance premium or one expensive repair can erase years of fuel savings.
- Look where demand isn't. Regular gas sedans and compacts often get 30 to 36 mpg for less money than a hybrid. If you need a truck, prices are softening.
- Don't let a hot segment rush you. Hybrids selling in 37 days means you have days, not hours. Get the history report and a pre-purchase inspection before you commit.
- Know the specific car's weak points before you make an offer. Fuel economy tells you what the car costs to run when it's working. It says nothing about whether that year's transmission or battery tends to fail.
Final thoughts
Fuel prices are high, and the EIA expects them to ease next year without falling back to last year's levels. The used market has already priced that in: efficient cars cost more, thirsty ones cost less. The best deal this fall is the car whose total cost, fuel included, fits your budget at today's prices and at next year's.
Before you rush into a decision on a specific car, a Squeezed report gives you the full risk picture in about a minute: the known issues for that year, trim and engine, open recalls, and what a fair price looks like. It's the step between the news headlines and your offer.
Sources
- AAA, Gas Prices (national and state averages, September 29, 2026)
- AAA, National Average Climbs Nearly 5 Cents Since Last Week (September 24, 2026)
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (September 28, 2026)
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (September 9, 2026)
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly U.S. Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A (July 2026 data)
- Chase, Diesel Prices Keep Hitting Records in September 2026 (September 23, 2026)
- LendingTree, Gas Prices Higher in Every State Than a Year Ago (September 15, 2026)
- Cox Automotive, Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index: Mid-September 2026 Trends (September 18, 2026)
- Cars.com, Used EVs, Hybrids and Rising Prices: What Car Shoppers Need to Know Now (June 24, 2026)
- iSeeCars, Used Car Market Study (April 29, 2026)
- U.S. Department of Energy and EPA, fueleconomy.gov (EPA combined fuel economy ratings)
FAQ
Why are gas prices so high in September 2026?
Crude oil is expensive and supply is uncertain. AAA attributes the rise to volatility in the Strait of Hormuz and the high cost of crude, with WTI above $92 a barrel in late September. The national average reached $4.46 on September 29, and September is on track to be the most expensive September on record.
Is a used hybrid worth it with gas at $4.46?
It depends on the price premium. At today's national average, a Camry Hybrid saves about $680 a year in fuel over a regular Camry at 15,000 miles. A $2,000 premium takes about three years to earn back, and about four at the EIA's forecast of $3.35 gas in 2027. A larger premium can take six to eight years.
Are used car prices going up because of gas prices?
For fuel-efficient cars, yes. Cox Automotive reports compact cars and EVs are above last year's wholesale prices, and Cars.com found used hybrid prices up 10.4% year over year. Midsize cars, pickups and SUVs are below last year's prices, so thirsty vehicles are getting cheaper to buy.
Will gas prices go down in 2027?
The EIA's September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts regular gas averaging $3.35 a gallon in 2027, down from a projected $3.84 for 2026, as Brent crude falls from around $90 to about $74 a barrel. The forecast depends on oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
